New research from Sheffield Hallam University has shown that Premier League teams that replace their managers during the football season are more likely to increase their final points tally by the end of the season compared to those who don’t.
Yet the managerial merry-go-round is much better news for relegation-threatened teams than for Champions League chasers, who actually end up in a lower league position by the end of the season.
But the study – labelled You Don’t Know What You’re Doing and believed to be the first to assess the impact of managerial departures in the English Premier League, did show that teams who change their manager within a season increase their number of points per match.
The researchers, from Sheffield Hallam University’s Academy of Sport and Physical Activity, warned that with relegation costing clubs around £40m in revenue, teams should think carefully before giving managers the boot.
The study looked at 60 managerial changes among the 36 clubs who have been in the English Premier League between the seasons 2003/4 and 2012/13.
Of those changes, 46 were sackings, nine were resignations or departure by mutual consent, three were signed by other clubs and two were interim managers until a long term appointment was made. All 60 occurrences of managerial change were examined in relation to performance upon departure compared to the end of the season.
For all clubs affected by managerial change, points went up to an average of 1.17 per game (from 1.03 at the point of departure). But there was a striking difference between the final league performance of clubs in the bottom half of the table with clubs leaping up more than a place after a sacking or resignation.
In the top half, final league position actually FALLS from 5.20 at the point of departure to 7.10 at the end of the season, a slump of nearly two positions.
You don’t know what you’re doing! The impact of managerial change on club performance in the English Premier League by Stuart Flint, Daniel Plumley and Robert Wilson is published in Managing Leisure (April 28).
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