{"id":1288,"date":"2018-01-26T17:15:54","date_gmt":"2018-01-26T17:15:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.shu.ac.uk\/hwbstaffnews\/?p=1288"},"modified":"2018-01-26T17:17:40","modified_gmt":"2018-01-26T17:17:40","slug":"spending-big-football-transfer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.ac.uk\/hwbstaffnews\/2018\/01\/26\/spending-big-football-transfer\/","title":{"rendered":"Does spending big in the football transfer window get results?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Does spending big in the football transfer window get results? Hallam’s football finance experts crunch the data.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dr Daniel Plumley and Dr Rob Wilson<\/strong> predict another record-breaking Premier League transfer window, whereas there seems a greater need from clubs to make decisions that are planned strategically to maximise their return. Dr Plumley and Dr Wilson have written the\u00a0following piece featured\u00a0in The Conversation<\/span><\/a> making sense of the data from recent transfer seasons to work out what could be done and what could work.<\/p>\n

Football clubs in the English Premier League have found this month\u2019s transfer window an expensive experience. With Liverpool breaking the world record for a defender, with the signing of Virgil van Dijk<\/span><\/a> and sale of Phillipe Coutinho<\/span><\/a> to Barcelona, for a fee rising to \u00a3142m \u2013 bargains are in short supply. So is it worth spending the money?<\/p>\n

Many clubs are finding it a challenge to weigh up their options ahead of the transfer window slamming shut at the end of the month. Should they back their manager and spend? Can they afford it? And, with so much riding on a Premier League place, should they stick with the players they\u2019ve got or twist and buy more?<\/p>\n

Here we make sense of the data from recent seasons to work out what can be done and what could work.<\/p>\n

New manager, players or both?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The clubs at the bottom of the league have already been busy trying to change their fortunes. West Ham United, Crystal Palace and West Bromwich Albion all made a managerial change before the window opened. Two, Palace and West Ham have seen an upturn in results, climbing out of the relegation zone. Swansea City also decided a change was necessary over the Christmas period and Stoke City have parted company with manager Mark Hughes<\/span><\/a> following a slump in form which saw them drop into the bottom three and exit the FA Cup at the hands of Coventry City, three leagues below them.<\/p>\n

With recent research<\/span><\/a> suggesting that changing a manager mid-season is worth an average improvement of three league positions (assuming the change is made early enough for them to have an impact), it\u2019s hardly surprising to see these gains in action. Three positions could be the difference between survival and relegation (which can make or break a club\u2019s financial stability<\/span><\/a>). Or a lucrative place in a European competition. Perhaps this was the thinking behind Watford\u2019s surprise sacking of coach Marco Silva<\/span><\/a>. His departure was the eighth of the season in the Premier League \u2013 that\u2019s 40% of managers already losing their job.<\/p>\n

With this in mind, it is easy to see why clubs are keen to put a new manager in place at the start of the transfer window. Based on current standings, any club in the bottom half can realistically be considered in danger and those who haven\u2019t yet shown their hand (such as Newcastle, Bournemouth and Southampton) are left playing playing Russian roulette.<\/p>\n

So let us consider who could change their fortunes and see whether past windows can help clubs make that illusive, right decision.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n
<\/div>
Net Gain\/Net Loss (Transfer Spend vs. Relegation or Survival)<\/span> Author data<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/figcaption>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ironically, Swansea City find themselves in exactly the same position as they were on New Years Day 2017 \u2013 bottom of the table. Two days later, they appointed a new manager<\/span><\/a> and spent \u00a318m on new transfers. These two decisions helped them to a 15th place finish and league safety (a gain of five places). A position that equated to \u00a39.7m extra revenue<\/span><\/a> for the club. Even more importantly, by avoiding relegation they retained about \u00a360m in TV money. With this in mind, \u00a318m on transfers looks like a bargain.<\/p>\n

Similarly, Crystal Palace spent \u00a330m in the January 2017 window after appointing Sam Allardyce<\/span><\/a> as their new manager shortly beforehand. He led them from 17th position to 14th by the end of the season.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n
<\/div>
Total winter spend in 16\/17 by club and places gained.<\/span> Author Data<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/figcaption>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

That said, it is not so easy as spending money to survive. Sunderland and Middlesbrough spent around \u00a324m between them in January 2017 and still got relegated, but then neither club changed its manager in sufficient time for it to take effect. Sunderland themselves gambled a year earlier, spending \u00a325m in the winter window of 2016 and stayed up. But the club couldn\u2019t repeat this trick with David Moyes at the helm last season<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Yet crunching the numbers doesn\u2019t show any real pattern. For some clubs spending works, and for others it doesn\u2019t. What is clear is that, more often than not, increased spending in the transfer window coincides with a new manager at the helm, suggesting that sometimes a shake up of more than one element of the club is needed. Plus, many fans will argue, it is better to do something rather than nothing and just accepting your fate.<\/p>\n

Life is tough at the top<\/strong><\/h2>\n

With Manchester City seemingly a shoe in for the the league title, we have paid little attention to the top of the league. They remain fairly active, however, at this time of year. There has been a lot of discussion<\/span><\/a> over the future of Manchester United\u2019s manager and the club\u2019s need to spend in the winter window \u2013 not to have any bearing on this year\u2019s title race, but to bed in new players early enough to hit the ground running next season.<\/p>\n

This seems a logical approach. A new manager often takes time to embed their methods and to develop a squad they deem appropriate to win football matches in their style. After all, Pep Guardiola guided City to 3rd in his first season in charge, before spending \u00a3221.5m in the summer window in 2017<\/span><\/a>. Now they are 12 points clear at the top of the table.<\/p>\n

The winter window throws many clubs into a tail spin with fans and commentators piling on the pressure to spend. There is no perfect formula, though, and clubs need to consider their options carefully.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not a simple case of spending big and hoping for the best and, while we predict another record breaking window<\/span><\/a>, there seems a greater need to make decisions that are planned strategically to maximise their return. Knee jerk purchases should be kept to a minimum, just like that outfit that is reduced by 70% but will never be worn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Does spending big in the football transfer window get results? Hallam’s football finance experts crunch the data. Dr Daniel Plumley and Dr Rob Wilson predict another record-breaking Premier League transfer…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2258,"featured_media":1293,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"wds_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[21,29,30],"tags":[191,319,399,398,128,122],"class_list":["post-1288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-opinion","category-sport","tag-dr-daniel-plumley","tag-dr-rob-wilson","tag-english-premier-league","tag-football","tag-football-finance","tag-football-transfers"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogs.shu.ac.uk\/hwbstaffnews\/files\/2018\/01\/Football_transfer-window3.jpg?fit=1028%2C624&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8KEAX-kM","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":719,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.ac.uk\/hwbstaffnews\/2017\/09\/05\/transfer-deadline\/","url_meta":{"origin":1288,"position":0},"title":"Football finance experts across the media following summer transfer deadline day.","author":"Jane Gardner-Florence","date":"September 5, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Dr Dan Plumley spoke to the Daily Star about how there are more lucrative transfer deals to come if the likes of Netflix and Amazon make bids for Premier League TV rights. More Neymar-style MEGA deals to come as Netflix and Amazon bid for Premier League rights The fees demanded\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "In the Headlines"","block_context":{"text":"In the Headlines","link":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.ac.uk\/hwbstaffnews\/category\/news\/hwbheadlines\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogs.shu.ac.uk\/hwbstaffnews\/files\/2017\/08\/in-the-headlines.jpg?fit=1028%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogs.shu.ac.uk\/hwbstaffnews\/files\/2017\/08\/in-the-headlines.jpg?fit=1028%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogs.shu.ac.uk\/hwbstaffnews\/files\/2017\/08\/in-the-headlines.jpg?fit=1028%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogs.shu.ac.uk\/hwbstaffnews\/files\/2017\/08\/in-the-headlines.jpg?fit=1028%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":563,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.ac.uk\/hwbstaffnews\/2017\/08\/07\/neymar-transfer-comment\/","url_meta":{"origin":1288,"position":1},"title":"Sheffield Hallam football finance experts speak to media about the world record transfer deal","author":"Jane Gardner-Florence","date":"August 7, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Hallam football finance expert Rob Wilson spoke to the Sunday Express about the current 'out of control' spending by Premier League clubs in this summer's transfer window. 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Dr Plumley believes Ashley's valuation is as much as double the actual value. 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